The Future is Full of Moderate Possibilities
So it sounds like Iggy is building up the courage to strike out on his own and risk sending the country to an election in the spring. Well I say, it’s about time.
After three years of Conservative disregard for the institutions of democracy, embarrassing delinquency on climate change and international diplomacy, debasing of rational, science based decision making and the reckless use of the power of government fan the flames of a culture war to keep the country divided; finally we, the voters might have the chance, however flawed, to make our voice heard. The Liberals seem to be more inspired about corporate tax cuts and fighter planes, but hey, whatever works for you.
An election will be good for the country, but not necessarily because it will actually lead to a different makeup in parliament, because that’s not very likely to happen.
One possibility is that the results of the recent by-elections will be part of a trend of voters aggressively voting strategically and abandoning the NDP and Greens to defeat (or try to defeat) conservatives. The election could really turn into more of a two way fight in most of the country. This could conceivably lead to a Liberal minority government. Maybe. Or maybe the NDP will rebound and build on recent gains in Quebec.
But even if that doesn’t happen there could still be a change if Gilles Duceppe jumps for the Premier’s job in Quebec and the Bloc does significantly worse as a result. Then it might be possible that the Liberals and NDP form a coalition to enable coalition majority rule. But you know, probably not.
If none of that happens and Stephen Harper doesn’t implode by say, trying to branch out with his burgeoning singing career into Lady Gaga tunes, then we’ll likely get similar results to last election.
If the NDP+Libs somehow win more seats than the Cons, a Coalition will be possible, although a very weak one with only informal support from the Bloc. But hey, that’s better than nothing, which is what 75% have right now in parliament, nothing.
If that isn’t even possible, then Iggy will have had his chance and will be expected to resign forthwith. Would Jack step aside if the NDP get less seats than last election? Would the Bloc implode in ‘nobody-wants-to-talk-about-sovereignty-Quebec’ when Gilles leaves to slay the provincial Liberals? Maybe even Harper will get tired of weak mandates and lack of progress and throw a bone to someone more able to rile old Progressive Conservative voters now sitting in the Liberal camp. Nah, sorry, I’ve gone too far now, don’t know what I was thinking there.
No matter what, after the next election change would at the very least come in the form of new blood somewhere or a change from weak rule by one party to weak rule by another. At this point in the extended stalemate that is Canadian politics, that might be the biggest change we can hope for.