Tories lift off towards a false majority, is this Democracy?
Here’s what counts for a majority in Canada:
According to EKOS, the Tories now enjoy 40.7 per cent support compared to 25.5 per cent for the Liberals, 14.3 per cent for the NDP, 10.5 per cent for the Green Party and 9.1 per cent for the Bloc.
Two polls last week showed the same upward movement for the Conservatives, edging them into majority territory.
I continually amazes me that no one looks at these numbers and feels that something is wrong. EKOS did a seat projection as well (which is very problematic given the small sample sizes in each riding)
The projections – all hypothetical – do not bode well for Mr. Ignatieff
and his Liberals. It would give them 68 seats, meaning he would do
worse than his predecessor, Stéphane Dion, who won 77 seats in the 2008
The EKOS model gives the Bloc 50 seats, up from 47; the NDP 23 seats,
which is a decrease of 13; and the Green Party would be shut out once
Does this seem fair? There’s your issue Mr. Ignatieff: Bloc -> 9%/50 seats Green -> 10.5%/0 seats. There are Liberals who should be in Alberta, there are Conservatives who should be in Toronto, there are Greens and NDP that should be everywhere. If you are worried these pollsters are right then you have nothing to lose by saying “We need to fix our democracy, we need to look at proportional representation. We need to do it now.” You can use longer words if you like. But you need something that tells Canadians you are really going to change things.